《全球铁合金网》2021-12-25:2021 has been an exceptional year for the global stainless steel industry. Most companies, throughout the supply chain, will post very strong financial results for the period. Steelmakers have benefitted from a substantial upturn in selling prices. This is despite an increase in their input costs. Many of them are posting record profits, following several consecutive quarters of growth.
2021 年对于全球不锈钢行业来说是不平凡的一年。整个供应链中的大多数公司将在此期间发布非常强劲的财务业绩。钢铁制造商受益于销售价格的大幅上涨。尽管他们的投入成本增加了。在连续几个季度实现增长之后,其中许多公司都创下了创纪录的利润。
Despite a slowdown in activity at the year-end, most market participants remain optimistic regarding the prospects for 2022. However, opinions are divided on the short-term outlook for stainless steel demand and prices. Buyers have become increasingly cautious with their purchasing, in recent months. The spread of the Omicron variant, rising inflation and ongoing supply chain constraints will continue to challenge business operations in the new year.
尽管年底活动放缓,但大多数市场参与者对 2022 年的前景仍持乐观态度。然而,对于不锈钢需求和价格的短期前景存在分歧。最近几个月,买家在购买时变得越来越谨慎。Omicron 变体的传播、通胀上升和持续的供应链限制将在新的一年继续挑战业务运营。
As the end of 2021 approaches, stainless steel prices remain at elevated levels, in all regions. The MEPS European average 304 cold rolled coil basis value is now equal to the all-time high, recorded in January 2007. In the United States, the comparable figure is yet to reach its previous peak but stands at its highest level in fourteen years.
随着 2021 年底的临近,所有地区的不锈钢价格都保持在较高水平。MEPS 欧洲平均 304 冷轧卷基价现在等于 2007 年 1 月记录的历史新高。在美国,可比数字尚未达到之前的峰值,但处于 14 年来的最高水平。
Nevertheless, the forward view on global prices is, gradually, turning more pessimistic – in particular, for coil products, where the recent hikes were the steepest. No crash in stainless steel transaction values is, however, foreseen. Prices are expected to decline more slowly than they increased in the past twelve months.
尽管如此,对全球价格的前瞻性看法逐渐变得更加悲观——尤其是对于近期上涨幅度最大的卷材产品。然而,预计不锈钢交易价值不会崩溃。预计价格下跌的速度将比过去十二个月的上涨速度更慢。
In Asia, anticipated reductions in raw material costs, coupled with seasonally low demand, are likely to exert negative pressure on selling values, prior to the Lunar New Year. However, output cuts, in the region, should restrict supply and limit the size of any price decreases.
在亚洲,原材料成本的预期下降,加上季节性需求低迷,可能会对农历新年之前的销售价值造成负面压力。然而,该地区的减产应该会限制供应并限制任何价格下跌的幅度。
Further rises in North American basis values are expected to be constrained by reduced purchasing activity, in the first half of next year. Moreover, buyers have significant quantities of material already on order, with both domestic and overseas suppliers. This will start to arrive in the early part of 2022. However, supply from domestic stainless steel producers is expected to remain restricted. This will help to keep prices at elevated levels, in the near term.
预计明年上半年北美基值的进一步上涨将受到采购活动减少的限制。此外,买家已经向国内外供应商订购了大量材料。这将在 2022 年初开始出现。然而,国内不锈钢生产商的供应预计仍将受到限制。这将有助于在短期内将价格保持在较高水平。
European flat product transaction values are forecast to move upwards early in the new year – particularly, for cold rolled coils and sheets, for which availability remains tight. However, inventories are increasing for most grades and sizes. This, plus a softening in demand, is expected to restrict the level of price rises that stainless steel buyers will be prepared to accept during this period.
预计欧洲扁平材产品交易额将在新年初期上涨——尤其是冷轧卷材和薄板,其供应仍然紧张。然而,大多数等级和尺寸的库存都在增加。这加上需求疲软,预计将限制不锈钢买家在此期间准备接受的价格上涨水平。(MEPS)